Food for Thought: Global Food Shortages in 2022
In case you haven’t noticed, food shortages and higher prices are haunting us here in America. However, this goes well beyond our borders. Economists, aid organizations and government officials are warning of an increase in world hunger.
The looming disaster is showing us the consequences of a major war in this era of globalization. Prices for food, fertilizer, oil, gas and even metals like aluminum, nickel and palladium are all rising fast — and experts expect worse as the effects cascade.
A “perfect” storm
For the global food market, there are few worse countries to be in conflict than Russia and Ukraine. Over the past five years, together they have accounted for a significant portion of the world’s wheat, corn, 32% barley (a crucial source of animal feed) and sunflower seed oil.
Ukrainian farms are about to miss critical planting and harvesting seasons. European fertilizer plants are significantly cutting production because of high energy prices. Farmers from Brazil to Texas are cutting back on fertilizer, threatening the size of the next harvests. And China, facing its worst wheat crop in decades after severe flooding, is planning to buy much more of the world’s dwindling supply.
The result is that global food and fertilizer prices are soaring. Since the invasion last month, wheat prices have increased by 21 percent, barley by 33 percent and some fertilizers by 40 percent!
This is compounded by situations that were already raising prices and squeezing supplies: the pandemic, shipping constraints, high energy costs and recent droughts, floods and fires.
Around the world, the result will be even higher grocery bills. In February, U.S. grocery prices were already up 8.6 percent over a year prior, the largest increase in 40 years. Economists expect the war to further inflate those prices.
“Let them eat cake.”
Apocryphal or not, that is what Marie Antoinette is thought to have said when told that the French peasants had no bread. And we know what happened to her. What actually leads to people go into the streets in protest? It starts from food shortages and food price inflation.
According to the UN Food Prices Index, food commodity prices were already at 10-year highs because of global harvest issues, and that was before the war in Ukraine. Now they are at their highest since records began 60 years ago!
That has fueled a cost-of-living crisis that is worrying politicians and has sparked warnings of social unrest across the world.
The budgets and economies of many African and Arab countries are buckling under the cost of food. Tunisia struggled to pay for some food imports before the war and now is trying to prevent an economic collapse. Inflation has already set off protests in Morocco and is stirring unrest and violent crackdowns in Sudan.
While the United States and its allies are trying to find ways to redistribute production, it’s impossible to produce millions of tons of additional wheat.
What we can expect…and why
The grocery shortages we’re seeing this year are due to a combination of factors: supply chain issues and driver shortages, scarcity of packaging, labor shortages at manufacturing and production plants as the workforce has not returned as facilities restarted from COVID closures. For at least the remainder of 2022, we can expect to experience food shortages in:
Climate change
From winter storms and flooding to droughts, fires and pestilence, all these are affected by the climate and regional practices. They, in turn, affect crops, both planting and harvesting, processing, and delivery.Cyberattacks
Problems with everything from orders to logistics have slowed supply chains.Packaging materials
The scarcity of aluminum and plastics makes many manufacturers unable to keep up with the demand for packaged items.Labor shortages at manufacturing & production plants
When food manufacturers and distributors are missing workers, it affects the availability of certain foods.The Great Resignation
Fewer workers are settling for union-busting and low wages.Meat, especially beef & poultry.
Manufacturing plant labor shortages cause most of the issues. Beef will likely see the most shortages because work in beef plants is more labor-intensive.Dairy
A combination of expensive crops to feed livestock and chickens, combined with high transportation costs and shortages of packaging materials.Eggs
COVID-related supply chain issues have interrupted the business side of commercial egg production. Increased expenses (feed, freight, labor costs), supply shortages, and government regulation have put a strain on the overall bottom line.
Plant-based proteins
Plant-based saw a huge rise in demand as animal-meat processors were forced to shut down operations. Higher demand, less supply, do the math.Fruits, vegetables, & other goods made with produce
From crop failures (thank you, climate change) to supply chain issues, certain fruits and vegetables may be in scarce supply. This also affects items that include vegetables as an ingredient, such as soup.Canned food
High prices and low aluminum availability will cause canned food and beverage shortages this year. This includes canned pet food.Imported foods
Cheeses, boba, and other foreign-produced items may be in short supply due to availability, supply chain issues, and higher costs to transport goods overseas.Pet food
Increased costs for pet food ingredients like corn, soy, meat, and some specific oils, have contributed to pet food shortages.Bottled water, juices & soda
There isn’t enough plastic to meet demand.Toilet paper, paper towels, & other paper goods
Same problems as other products — supply chain issues, labor shortages due to illness, etc., so some retailers have tried to preempt further issues by reinstating purchasing limits.Pasta
A combination of shoppers are be stocking up because of the threat of winter weather and shipments are having trouble getting to grocery stores.Liquor
Low supplies of glass for bottling.